Currently we are in a hurricane. But the perfect storm is yet to hit!

The latest insights into how shoplifting is evolving in our UK stores…

I have got to be honest. It can be dispiriting… Recently the BBC highlighted the shoplifting challenge retail is facing. Their article focussed upon an individual who had kicked a drug habit. Now he was clean. Now he was prepared to talk. ‘Ross’ explained how he would steal to order. Not for other individuals… For retailers. According to Ross a prolific, convicted shoplifter, retailers would give him orders for items that they wanted for resale. Not only would their competitors suffer the loss of the theft. But then the double whammy of a competitor taking the business too.. and absolutely at their expense.

It seems incredible to me that retailers would do this to each other, despite us having first-hand experience of this exact transaction. Any business owner knows the challenges that retail is facing. You would expect some degree of solidarity in the face of a common enemy to prevail. However, it appears not to be the case. At least not according to Ross. I hear retailers talking about a perfect storm. That we are in the middle of a situation where all the factors necessary to create the worst possible outcome – in our terms talking about retail theft here – have come together at the same time to make it as bad currently as it could possibly be.

I am sorry to say this, but I think they are wrong. And not just because I am in the business of, amongst other things, stopping theft – internal or external. In relative terms , and to continue the meteorological metaphor, we are already in a hurricane of crime. But the perfect storm is on its way, make no mistake about that. Think about it. We are in the middle of a cost of living crisis. And that is seen as major driver of criminal activity. But that crisis is not going to get better. If anything, it is about to get much, much worse…

Pensioners have lost their winter fuels allowance, and the energy price cap is about to be set at a level 10% higher than it currently is. Inflation, having fallen back to 2% is now creeping up at 2.4%. Interest rates are being maintained by the Bank of England in order to curb inflation, meaning that people’s mortgages on the whole will stay higher for longer or rise again, if their fixed rate mortgages (set with lower rates than are on offer today) expire soon. All of this points to a higher level of crime, but we have no spaces in our prisons to deal with convicted felons. And the police, already under resourced, are about to be required to pursue crimes where the value of stolen good is below the £200 threshold. The police cannot cope now. What is going to change to resource that, I wonder.

Those readers of a certain age will remember when it was socially acceptable to drink and drive. A public education campaign together with tougher laws and policing did change that, but it took years. It used to be acceptable not to wear a seat belt in a car. Today you would be considered odd if you did not buckle up. However, again this took years to promulgate the message throughout society. So, with crime becoming acceptable there would be no quick fix. Norfolk’s Chief Constable, Paul Sanford, told the BBC recently that his force charges people in 31.7% of cases – the highest charge rate for shoplifting offences in England and Wales – because of the action it takes.

Mr Sanford says “In my force, we’re detecting 46% of shoplifting, so you’ve roughly got a 50% chance of whether you’re going to get caught… That’s a strong deterrent, that’s a strong risk reward ratio. What needs to follow is the appropriate sanctions, and swift sanctions.” Will even that be enough? From our own data, an aggregate of the theft perpetrated against our customers, we can see that the number of incidents is already up 33% and the cost to the retailer of those incidents up 20% when compared to the same period last year. And if you consider the above cost of living pressures coming together as we move into October, we are also facing the highest spending season of the year… Christmas.

For all of these reasons I do not think that pressure on retail is anywhere near as high as it is going to get, as we head into the last quarter. And we see another troubling trend… The profile of the people committing the crimes is changing too. Simply, it breaks down into three thirds. The first third of people we see committing shoplifting offences are indeed those feeding a drug habit. They steal to buy drugs. And recent estimates have concluded that a couple hooked on drugs steal as much as £750,000pa of retail priced stock in order to feed their habit. The second third of people are those stealing because they cannot feed their families.

They are stealing essentials in order to survive. How that can be necessary in a society like ours, where we are one of the wealthiest countries in the world is beyond me. However, we have seen working people holding down jobs, receiving State benefits and still not able to make ends meet. So, they turn to crime. Then there is the final third. This is a growing part of our offender profile. These people are stealing because it is socially acceptable to do so. They do not need the products that they are stealing, and they are not feeding drug habits or an addiction.

Instead, they see their crimes as victimless, being committed against large faceless retail organisations, and since they know that there is little to no chance of being apprehended by the police, they feel they can steal with impunity. And in some ways, this is the most worrying section of our trilogy.

Because if it becomes widely acceptable to steal, it is difficult to see how that can be fought without societal change. Of course it is not to change established societal norms. And perhaps we are already at that point where there is not. So, I would urge retailers to continue their target hardening, ’process’ those caught shoplifting and record their details, offering some form of repercussions, if not only internal ones and not to relax. Do not imagine that things are going to get better, because it is unlikely that they are.